Friday, September 23, 2011

Is This The Grinding Sound Of Realignment?

The Democracy Corps - a Dem Party pollster - just released its bi-yearly poll of voters in 60 swing districts and they must be knocking back serious drinks at their local watering holes.  While DC furiously tries to spin its results into something positive for the Dems, the numbers give a completely different story.  As reported by the National Journal:

When voters were asked whether they're supporting the Republican incumbent or a Democratic candidate, 50 percent preferred the Republican and just 41 percent backed the Democrat.

Voters in these districts said they were more supportive of Republicans than they were during the 2010 midterms, when 48 percent said they backed the Republican candidate and 42 percent said they backed the Democrat. (Republicans won 55 percent of the overall vote in these 60 battleground districts, while Democrats took 43 percent.) In 2010, Republicans netted 63 House seats - their best showing since 1948.

Whoa.  


Folks, if the GOP is leading by 9 points in swing districts a year after a wave election when you would expect some reversal of the tide, what are the numbers like in nominally "safe" Dem districts?

President Obama's job approval rating in the battleground districts is just 41 percent, and only inches up to 43 percent in the 30 more-competitive seats that are a little more Democratic. Both Perry and Romney hit a near-majority of 49 percent against Obama in the battlegrounds, suggesting that voters are more concerned with casting their ballot against Obama than caring about who the Republican nominee ends up being.

A closer look into the DC charts shows that 
Obama approval is -14 in districts he mostly took in 2008 and needs again to win in 2012.  V
oter intensity is even more massively against Obama,
 with 44% strongly disapproving vs. 20% strongly approving of the President's job performance.


These are realignment level numbers.  If the election were held today, Obama loses in a landslide, the GOP gets close to 60 seats in the Senate and maybe another 10-20 House seats if they can recruit candidates to run in Dem districts.

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