Generally, to gain reelection, a president must have a Gallup approval rating north of 50%. Over the first six months of 2011, Obama's national approval averaged a mediocre 47%, but the individual state results are pointing toward a landslide defeat with only 16 states approving of Obama's job performance at 50% or higher.
That was then and this is now. Currently, Obama has free fallen to 40% approve v. 50% disapprove in national polling. Thus, if Obama's state-by-state average has fallen off by 7 points like his national average, he would be lucky to match Jimmy Carter' electoral vote total in 1980 if the election were held today.
Obama has completely lost the center of the electorate now.
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I have two fears about the upcoming election. One, I don't yet see a really good candidate from the Republicans, and two, the press has yet to go into campaign mode. During the last election, they abandoned all pretense of impartiality. I expect this time for news stories to resemble Democrat attack ads.
Dan:
The Dems cannot run on their record so gird yourself for the most negative campaign in the history of the Republic. They are angry and desperate and will throw everything they have into attacking the Tea Party and the GOP candidate.
Of course, the Dems and unions just tried the same thing in Wisconsin when attempting to recall 6 GOP state senators from 1 Dem district and 5 swing districts. Despite massively outspending and allocating far more GOTV resources than the GOP, the Dems only gained a minority of the vote in the recall and failed to retake the state senate.
Ignore the noise. This election is going to be a referendum on the economy and in close second on Obama's unpopular policies. No amount of money or vile slime slinging will change that.
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