The Road to 270

Most early analyses of the 2012 presidential election are looking at President Barrack Obama's job approval numbers (overall and economic) and his reelect numbers (whether the voter has decided for vote for against him). However, presidential elections are not simple majority votes and are instead decided by a largely winner take all system of winning enough states to gain 270 or more electoral votes. Thus, I would like to take an early look at the 2012 electoral college map.

Actually, I would like to concentrate on the battleground states on that map. For this analysis, I see two possible groups of battleground states.

The first group are the 9 states worth 112 votes which the Republican George W. Bush won in 2004 and then flipped to the Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 - CO, FL, IA, IN, NC, NM, NV, OH, VA. Let's call these Swing States.

The second group are the 5 states worth 45 electoral votes which the Democrat John Kerry won in 2004, but in which President Barack Obama has a Gallup job approval rate below 48%. ME, NH, OR, PA, WI. Let's call these Endangered States.

Allow me to explain my reasoning for the second group. In the history of Gallup polling of presidential job approval, the lowest job approval received by a President seeking reelection in the last poll before election day is George W. Bush's 48%. This number is probably low because Bush received 51% in the poll before and 53% in the first poll after the election, and the next lowest approval is Bill Clinton's 53%. Likely, the minimum approval rate necessary for reelection is above 50%, but let us give President Obama every benefit of the doubt and make 48% our minimum approval level for reelection.

This leaves Barack Obama with a likely base of states which Kerry won in 2004 and in which he has an approval rating of at least 48% worth 199 electoral votes and the need to win battleground states worth 71 or more electoral votes. (Note: After the census reapportionment, 6 electoral votes were moved from Obama's base states to the GOP base states.)

Some caveats are necessary here. I will am using the state-by-state Gallup ratings for 2010. Gallup recently noted that Obama's 2011 numbers are largely unchanged from 2010, so 2010 will be a good proxy for the current state of affairs. Next, it is more than possible for approval numbers to move substantially over the roughly 15 months before the 2012 election. For example, Reagan's soared in 1984 with the recovering economy while Carter's plunged in 1980 as the economy moved into recession. Thus, this analysis simply examines Barack Obama's chances of reelection at this time and is not a projection to 2012.

I will look at each of the battleground states using three metrics - 2010 Gallup job approval, the percentage of respondents who self identified as a Democrat or Democrat leaner, and the drop in that self identification between 2008 and 2010.

This data will be summarized for each state as follows:

State Name (Number of electoral votes) - Category of state
2010 Approval: Percentage approving v. Percentage disapproving
Dem self ID: Percentage of those who self identify Dem or Dem leaner in 2010 (Difference from the national average); The percentage drop in that self identification from 2008 to 2010 (Difference from the national average)

For example, Colorado data looks like this:

CO (9 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 45.2% v. 46.9%
Dem self ID: 43.0% (Nat. Avg. -0.7); -5.8% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

Now let us look at each state from the most to least likely Obama pickups:

NM (5 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 48.6% v. 43.2%
Dem self ID: 47.1% (Nat. Avg. +3.4); -2.8% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

New Mexico appears to have shifted from a true battlefield state to a Dem base state after Bush narrowly won it in 2004. Obama's approval is above 48% and substantially above his disapproval rate. Also, Dem self identification fell off by a much smaller amount than the nation at large and remains well above the national average. Obama should keep NM.

OR (7 EV) - Endangered State
2010 Approval: 47.8% v. 43.2%
Dem self ID: 47.5% (Nat. Avg. +3.8); -4.5% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

Oregon does not appear to be particularly happy with Obama, but like NM its a Dem state with a relatively low disapproval of the President. OR should go Obama.

WI (10 EV) - Endangered State
2010 Approval: 47.8% v. 45.0%
Dem self ID: 43.1% (Nat. Avg. -0.6); -9.2% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

Wisconsin is a very interesting state for the GOP because its Dem self identification collapsed over the first two years of the Obama Administration to a bit below the nation's average and highly disapproves of the President. The voters gave the entire state government to the GOP in 2010 and the partisan divide has since become even more bitter. Right now WI looks like a tossup.

PA (20 EV) - Endangered State
2010 Approval: 46.3% v. 45.8%
Dem self ID: 46.4% (Nat. Avg. +2.7); -6.5% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

PA may be a genuine tossup state now instead of the tease of prior cycles. The number of self identified Dems is still above the national average here, but many of the white working class Dems have shifted against Obama as in the Midwest as shown by the nearly even approval/disapproval numbers. The urban African Americans are suffering even more unemployment than the white working class voters. Other polling indicates that both groups are not particularly enthusiastic about voting. Thus, Obama's task is going to be to convince urban African Americans to show up to the polls and hope the white working class voters who have shifted against him stay home. That was not the case in 2010 when the GOP made serious gains.

NV (6 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 47.0% v. 45.3%
Dem self ID: 44.3% (Nat. Avg. +0.6); -4.8% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

NV gained Dem CA and Latino voters over the past decade to become a tossup state. Obama will win NV if he can match the 2008 Latino turnout for him to offset his slide with white working class voters. If however a substantial number of Latino men decide to vote against Obama as some polls are suggesting, NV will go GOP.

IA (6 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 47.5% v. 45.4%
Dem self ID: 43.5% (Nat. Avg. -0.2); -5.8% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

Iowa is a traditional swing state and remains pretty evenly divided. IA is a tossup that will be taken by the party with the most enthusiasm. Watch for the Christian conservatives here.

OH (18 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 47.4% v. 45.5%
Dem self ID: 44.9% (Nat. Avg. +1.2); -7.9% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

Ohio is in flux right now. Ohio lost 2 electoral votes to more economically dynamic red states during the last census reapportionment. At the same time, the percentage self identifying Dem has collapsed like in much of the Midwest. Unlike most of the rest of the country, though, the percentage of self identified GOP rose. Could it be the voters leaving OH for red states are mostly Dems? I suspect that OH will continue to go for the eventual winner.

NC (15 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 46.9% v. 45.8%
Dem self ID: 44.2% (Nat. Avg. +0.5); -5.8% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

NC moved into swing state territory when Barack Obama turned out the African American vote in record numbers and received an above average share of the white vote for a Dem. The white working class vote has shifted against Obama. The question is whether Obama can maintain the enthusiasm of the African American vote which is suffering devastating unemployment shrinking the black middle class.

ME (4 EV) - Endangered State (Split votes)
2010 Approval: 46.4% v. 45.6%
Dem self ID: 42.2% (Nat. Avg. -1.5); -10.9% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

Maine has been a reliable Dem state for several cycles, but has shifted hard against the Dems in the same manner as WI. Amazingly ME looks like an under the radar tossup state now. However, at most, the GOP could only pick up 2 EVs because the other 2 are allocated by popular vote within each congressional district and the Dems will win one of those.

CO (9 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 45.2% v. 46.9%
Dem self ID: 43.0% (Nat. Avg. -0.7); -5.8% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

CO used to be a safe GOP state but has become very purple with the influx of Dem Latino and CA voters. Dems won the governor's mansion and the Senate seat in 2010, offsetting the GOP gains in the House of Representatives. However, the number of self identified Dems is again below the national average and Obama's approval is underwater. Lean GOP.

FL (29 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 45.8% v. 46.0%
Dem self ID: 42.7% (Nat. Avg. -1.0); -5.5% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

Barack Obama was the first northern Dem to take FL in generations due to a record African American vote and picking up just enough white voters. However, Obama governance and a very bad economy alienated the white vote and shrank the Dem base to the extent that his approval numbers are underwater. FL is back to lean GOP. Indeed, multiple polls indicate that it may be closer to safe GOP because Obama is the Dem candidate.

VA (13 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 46.6% v. 45.6%
Dem self ID: 41.4% (Nat. Avg. -2.3); -6.1% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

VA has been a traditionally GOP state and will probably be so again. The 2008 bump in Dem self identification has disappeared as the GOP romped in 2010. GOP pickup.

NH (4 EV) - Endangered State
2010 Approval: 41.3% v. 51.1%
Dem self ID: 37.9% (Nat. Avg. -5.8); -11.4% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

With all the "Taxachusetts" refugees moving into the state, NH went from the rock ribbed "live free or die" GOP state to a leaning Dem state over the past generation. Like Maine, however, the Dem brand has recently cratered in NH and Obama's approval is so far underwater that it looks like a surprise GOP pickup.

IN (11 EV) - Swing State
2010 Approval: 43.9% v. 48.4% U
Dem self ID: 40.3% (Nat. Avg. -3.4); -6.9% (Nat. Avg. -6.4)

Indiana is a solid GOP state. The fact that it went narrowly Obama in 2008 is a testament to the magnitude of the economic panic in the Midwest. However, after two years of Obama governance, this state is no longer even close. GOP pickup.

In these battleground states, Obama can probably only rely upon 12 electoral votes, with 79 tossups and 66 leaning or likely GOP pickups. At this time, Obama needs to sweep nearly every tossup state to get to 270 electoral votes - not exactly the easiest road to reelection.