Here She Comes

With six months to go before the Iowa Caucus, the GOP may have its first breakout candidate in Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann. In contrast to polling of registered voters, Magellan and TIR recently performed polls of likely GOP Iowa caucus goers and found that Michelle is the current belle of this ball.

Magellan performed the most comprehensive polling of 1024 likely caucus goers with publicly disclosed cross tabs. This poll found that:

Likely caucus goers are a solidly conservative group - self-identifying 84% economic conservative, 76% socially conservative and 44% Tea Party members.

When asked their first choice, caucus goers prefer Bachmann over Romney by a 13 point margin (29% to 16%). Bachmann enjoys a 33% lead among Tea Party members and double digit leads in every other subcategory except among women, where she leads by 9%.

When asked their second choice, caucus goers again prefer Bachmann (20%) followed by Pawlenty (13%), Cain (11%) and Romney (10%). This suggests in a head-to-head horserace among conservative heartland voters, Bachmann leads Romney with a combined first and second choice vote by a whopping 23% margin (49% to 26%).

Among these caucus goers, Bachmann has a 99% name ID (far higher than nationally) and is viewed favorably by a 67% to 17% margin, while Romney obviously carries baggage with a far narrower 50% to 30% favorability margin. This indicates that Bachmann enjoys a rather significant approval advantage once folks get to know her.

The TIR poll used a far smaller sample with a large +/- 4.4% margin of error and must be taken with a bit more caution. TIR found:

Bachmann again leads Romney among caucus goers, albeit with a smaller 25% to 21% margin. Among the most attentive caucus goers, Bachmann's lead over Romney expands to 32% to 18%, very similar to the Magellan results.

Bachmann appears to be drawing support broadly from the former 2008 supporters of Mike Huckabee, John McCain and Fred Thompson. When viewed alongside the Magellan responses, it appears that Bachmann is hardly limited to the social conservative wing of the party as some have opined.

Bachmann is viewed favorably by an even more impressive a 76% to 11% margin, while Romney does better as well with a 66% to 25% favorability margin.

Once Bachmann gets some national name recognition, Romney could be in serious trouble. Bachmann appears to be the favorite to win Iowa. If she places in NH, Bachmann would be in very good shape heading down south.

Watch out Mitt, here she comes just a walking down the street...