Thursday, July 14, 2011

Hanging Tough

During the debt ceiling negotiations over the past month, both the Dems and the GOP are keeping one eye towards how their negotiation positions are affecting their chances for reelection in 2012. Two recent polls may suggest how the dect ceiling negotiations are playing with voters.

As to Congress's reelection chances, Rasmussen is the only pollster still asking the generic congressional ballot question whether likely voters prefer a Dem or GOP to represent them in Congress. During the debt ceiling negotiations, the GOP advantage rose from 3 points last month to 6 points this week in the Rasmussen poll.

As for President Obama's reelection chances, Gallup just disclosed that registered voters prefer a generic GOP presidential candidate to President Obama by a 47% to 39% margin, the largest to date.


Click for larger image

Of course, we are a long way from the 2012 election. But using these polls as snapsots of how things stand now, the GOP's 2012 chances do not appear to be suffering from their demand for spending cuts to match any debt ceiling increase. Rather, GOP steadfastness may be appealing to their center-right voter coalition.

1 comments:

Dan Ross said...

Based on the way the MSM gave up all pretense of fair play in the last election, I shudder to think of the links to which they will go if Obama stays in trouble all the way to the general election campaign. And if the candidate is Palin, Bachman, or Cain, it will be ugly in a way we haven't seen since Andrew Jackson's wife was accused of being a mixed race adulteress.